Understanding Infectious Disease Transmission: Insights and Uncertainty - Christl Donnelly

How do diseases spread and how can the analysis of data help us stop them? Quantitative modelling and statistical analysis are essential tools for understanding transmission dynamics and informing evidence-based policies for both human and animal health. In this lecture, Christl draws lessons from past epidemics and endemic diseases, across livestock, wildlife, and human populations, to show how mathematical frameworks and statistical inference help unravel complex transmission systems. We’ll look at recent advances that integrate novel data sources, contact network analysis, and rigorous approaches to uncertainty, and discuss current challenges for quantitative epidemiology. Christl Donnelly CBE is Professor of Applied Statistics, University of Oxford and Professor of Statistical Epidemiology, Imperial College London. The Oxford Mathematics Public Lectures are generously supported by XTX Markets.