Regime Change Remains Unlikely in Iran Despite Rising Tensions

Mustafa Caner, a researcher at SETA and the Editor-in-Chief of Kriter magazine, shared his insights on the current wave of protests in Iran during a recent interview. Analyzing the dynamics on the ground, Caner provided a comprehensive assessment of why the current unrest is unlikely to result in an immediate regime change, despite the escalating violence. Mustafa Caner pointed out that one of the most significant barriers to a political transition is the absence of a structured opposition. He stated that there is currently no organized elite leadership within the Iranian opposition to steer the protests toward a specific political outcome. Without a centralized leadership, he argued, the movement remains fragmented, making a realistic prospect for regime change or a total government overhaul unlikely in the short term. Regarding the nature of the protests, Caner noted that while the demonstrations were initially triggered by deteriorating economic conditions—including inflation exceeding 50% and high unemployment—they have rapidly evolved. He highlighted that the slogans heard across the country have shifted from economic grievances to direct anti-regime messages. Despite this shift, he observed that the government is increasingly "securitizing" the situation, especially as the distinction between peaceful protesters and violent armed groups begins to blur. Finally, Mustafa Caner drew attention to the inextricable link between Iran’s internal stability and its foreign relations. He emphasized that Iran’s economic crisis cannot be resolved without addressing Western sanctions. He stated that for the Pezeshkiyan government to achieve any meaningful recovery, a direct dialogue with the United States is essential. However, he warned that the current climate of "foreign intervention" rhetoric and external threats complicates the government's ability to address internal grievances and corruption simultaneously. https://twitter.com/setavakfi http://www.facebook.com/setav