BIG DAY #1 - Tornado Chasers on the Ground

BETA TEST THE APP! - https://noteforms.com/forms/radar-app-beta-sign-up-3wmohh Check out our data - www.domlabs.io 🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – Saturday, May 16, 2026 (02:59PM CDT Update) SPC Risk Level: ENHANCED (Level 3 of 5) Valid through May 16, 2026 12:00 AM CDT Saturday 📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones 🟠 ENHANCED Risk: Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA, Kansas City, MO, Lincoln, NE 🟡 SLIGHT Risk: Louisville, KY, Evansville, IN, Springfield, IL, Cincinnati, OH 🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones 🟡 10% Tornado Risk (supercells and linear clusters with isolated tornado potential): Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA, Kansas City, MO, Lincoln, NE 🟢 2% Tornado Risk (isolated tornadoes possible with multicell clusters): Louisville, KY, Evansville, IN, Springfield, IL, Cincinnati, OH What the Percentages Mean A 10% tornado risk means there is a 1 in 10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Supercells and transient linear storms may produce a few tornadoes, primarily across eastern Nebraska, southern Iowa, and northern Missouri. A 2% tornado risk means there is a 1 in 50 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Isolated tornadoes remain possible with organized multicell clusters across parts of the Lower Ohio Valley. 📝 Overview A broad frontal zone extending from the central High Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley will support scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong destabilization with 40+ kt deep-layer shear will favor supercell structures capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds, with a localized enhanced tornado risk across eastern Nebraska, southern Iowa, and northern Missouri where low-level flow intersects boundaries. Meanwhile, scattered storms are expected across parts of the Lower Ohio Valley amid moderate buoyancy and 30 kt deep-layer shear. These storms will primarily be organized multicell clusters with damaging gusts and some hail, with a low tornado threat. Elsewhere, isolated storms may develop along the dryline across the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, with a conditional risk for damaging wind and hail due to steep lapse rates and moderate instability. ⛈️ Hazards Include 🧊 Very large hail (up to 2+ inches possible with supercells) 🌪️ A few tornadoes possible, mainly across eastern NE, southern IA, and northern MO 💨 Damaging winds (some gusts 75+ mph), including bowing line segments and clusters 🕓 Timeline 2 PM–6 PM CDT: Initial storm development along frontal boundaries and dryline, including supercells and multicell clusters 6 PM–12 AM CDT: Storms intensify and organize into clusters and lines, with peak severe threat and possible bowing segments 12 AM–6 AM CDT: Overnight storms continue across central Plains, maintaining severe threat 📌 Regional Notes 🟠 Central High Plains to Mid Missouri Valley → Eastern NE, Southern IA, Northern MO: Enhanced risk for supercells with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes 🟡 Lower Ohio Valley → Southern IN, Northern KY, Western OH: Slight risk for damaging gusts and isolated tornadoes with multicell storms 🟡 Southern Plains → Eastern TX Panhandle, Western OK: Slight conditional risk for damaging winds and hail with isolated storms ⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware Residents across eastern Nebraska, southern Iowa, and northern Missouri should remain alert for rapidly developing severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Conditions will be favorable for supercells and organized clusters, so timely warnings and preparedness are essential. #SevereWeather #SPC #NE #IA #MO #KY #IN #OH #TX #OK #TornadoRisk #Hail #DamagingWinds Keywords: Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA, Kansas City, MO, Lincoln, NE, Louisville, KY, Evansville, IN, Springfield, IL, Cincinnati, OH ——————————— In-Vehicle Driver, Man-of-Action - @ReedTimmerWx Navigator, Man-of-Music - @localmanweatherofficial Engineer, Man-of-Iron - @willclay25 Studio Guy in the corner - @brianvotoole, but he doesn't really post anything. he's just laying in the cut, you know? Thanks United Cajun Navy - https://unitedcajunnavy.org/