Evelyn Farkas from Munich: The Future of NATO, Ukraine’s Endgame, and the China Challenge

Dr. Evelyn Farkas joins The Cipher Brief from the Munich Security Conference with a focused warning: the future of the transatlantic alliance is the defining issue of this moment. In conversation with Suzanne Kelly, Farkas — Executive Director of the McCain Institute and former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia — assesses the state of U.S. alliances amid growing anxiety in Europe over Washington’s long-term commitments. While European nations are increasing defense spending under pressure from Russia’s aggression, she notes a clear undercurrent of distrust and uncertainty about America’s political direction. On Ukraine, Farkas is unequivocal: Russia cannot conquer or successfully rule Ukraine. The real question is how long the war lasts — and at what cost. She calls for intensified sanctions not only on Moscow, but also on Beijing, arguing that China’s dual-use technology and economic support are enabling Russia’s war machine. The conversation broadens to the China challenge more directly. Farkas contrasts Japan’s firm deterrence posture with what she sees as Europe’s more cautious hedging toward Beijing, warning that democracies must be clear-eyed about values, leverage, and long-term strategic risk. Her message from Munich is clear: supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, strengthening NATO, and deterring China are not separate challenges — they are interconnected pillars of global stability. Subscribe to The Cipher Brief for authoritative conversations on the alliances and decisions shaping the future of global security.