SNEAKY Tornado Day - Storm Chasers On The Ground

🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – Saturday, June 13, 2026 (11:30AM CDT Update) SPC Risk Level: ENHANCED (Level 3 of 5) Valid through June 14, 2026 12:00 PM CDT 📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones 🟠 ENHANCED Risk: Kansas City, MO, Topeka, KS, Columbia, MO, Springfield, MO 🟡 SLIGHT Risk: Des Moines, IA, St. Louis, MO, Wichita, KS, Omaha, NE 🟢 MARGINAL Risk: Lansing, MI, Raleigh, NC, Charleston, SC 🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones 🟡 10% Tornado Risk (Discrete storms with low tornado probability, increasing with linear mode in evening): Kansas City, MO, Topeka, KS, Columbia, MO 🟢 2% Tornado Risk (Brief tornado possible with isolated storms): Lansing, MI What the Percentages Mean A 10% tornado risk means there is a 1 in 10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. The highest risk area includes discrete storms capable of isolated tornadoes, with some potential for increased tornado threat as storms evolve into a linear mode during the evening. 📝 Overview An enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast across portions of the Central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley today and tonight. Multiple boundaries including a cold front, outflow boundaries, and mesoscale convective vortices will interact to support scattered storms. Moderate deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will allow for organized multicell and isolated supercell structures, especially near the intersection of the cold front and outflow boundaries in central and northeast Kansas. Large to very large hail is expected early in the convective cycle, particularly near the western periphery of the Missouri storm cluster and along the cold front. As storms evolve into a more linear mode this evening, damaging wind gusts will become the primary threat, with some gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph. A low but non-negligible tornado threat exists, mainly from discrete storms early and possibly within any stronger convective lines later in the evening. Additional scattered storms are expected across lower Michigan and the Carolinas, with isolated large hail, damaging winds, and a brief tornado possible in these areas. ⛈️ Hazards Include 🧊 Large to very large hail (up to 2+ inches possible with supercells early in the cycle) 💨 Damaging wind gusts (50-75+ mph, especially with linear storm modes) 🌪️ Isolated tornadoes (low probability, mainly with discrete storms and some risk with evening convective lines) 🕓 Timeline 11 AM–3 PM CDT: Ongoing storms in Missouri and Iowa with damaging winds and isolated hail; initiation near cold front and boundaries in Kansas 3 PM–7 PM CDT: Storm intensification near central and northeast Kansas with large hail and isolated supercells; transition toward linear mode begins 7 PM–12 AM CDT: Increasing damaging wind threat as storms evolve into a linear system; isolated tornado risk with stronger segments Overnight: Storms diminish eastward; isolated storms possible in Lower Michigan and Carolinas 📌 Regional Notes 🟠 Central Plains → Northeast KS: Large hail and isolated supercells expected early, transitioning to damaging wind threat in evening 🟡 Lower Missouri Valley → Central/Southern MO: Scattered storms with damaging winds and hail, low tornado risk 🟢 Lower Michigan → Northern Lower MI: Isolated storms with large hail, damaging winds, and brief tornado possible ⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware Residents in Kansas, Missouri, and surrounding states should monitor updates closely today as scattered severe storms develop and evolve. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, with a low but possible tornado risk especially during the evening hours as storms become more linear. Stay alert to changing conditions and be prepared to take shelter if warnings are issued. ——————————— In-Vehicle Driver, Man-of-Action - @ReedTimmerWx Navigator, Man-of-Music - @localmanweatherofficial Engineer, Man-of-Iron - @willclay25 Studio Guy in the corner - @brianvotoole, but he doesn't really post anything. he's just laying in the cut, you know? Thanks United Cajun Navy - https://unitedcajunnavy.org/