NFP in Focus! BOJ Holds Rates, USD Surges - What's Next For JPY?

The Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged at 0.5% as expected, reinforcing its wait-and-see approach. Inflation projections are revised upward—from 2.2% to 2.7% by the end of 2026—but policymakers still don’t see enough underlying inflation to justify a hike. They're looking for broader price pressures: rising wages, stronger domestic demand, and sustained corporate activity. Until that materialises, no action. Despite the unchanged policy, USD/JPY rallies sharply. The yen weakens, and the pair climbs over 200 pips in less than two days—from 148 to 150—as markets interpret the BOJ’s caution as dovish. I see this move as a sign that the yen remains vulnerable unless the BOJ signals imminent tightening. I’m watching for any future shift in language. A real commitment to rate hikes would be my signal to short USD/JPY. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index breaks above the 100 level and heads toward 101. Strength here is broad-based, supported by resilient U.S. data and higher-for-longer Fed expectations. But tonight’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) could shift the picture. Consensus expects 106,000 jobs added, down from 147,000 prior. Unemployment is forecast to tick up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 3.8% year-on-year. These figures are mixed. If NFP surprises to the upside—say, 110K+—it reinforces USD strength and supports further downside in EUR/USD. For now, I’m sticking with the trend: EUR/USD remains bearish, with my earlier targets at 1.15 and 1.14 already met. I’m watching for continuation. As long as U.S. growth data holds, I anticipate EUR/USD lower and USD/JPY higher. All eyes on NFP. Let’s see how the market reacts. Register here for the next webinar: https://acy.com/en/education/webinars/ Join Luca's Telegram Trading Feed: https://t.me/+bkfmaA76P2VlMTQ1 Free Trading eBook Series: https://acy.com/en/education/ebook/ Open a Live or Demo Account here: https://acy.cloud/open-live-account?url=https%3A%2F%2Facy.com.au%2Fen%2F&next=%2Fcreate-account%2Fselect-account-type https://youtu.be/QuowC4vVCrA https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvTbydhR9mC9zP33SONAVXOt https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvRYPBqz1EhkWyp5Tg3qwZCV https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQ4HLCoPaU_AhfjABFgHAaX https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQfwLPLln7cRwnB8HD6cvEj https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQ5ADghAgqVb19Oo539rgRq Catch up with the latest news and market analysis here: https://acy.com/en/market-news Get in touch today: Web: https://www.acy.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/ACY_Securities Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/acy.securities/ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2g4Py8AuAqUIxci9efdMmm?si=ac6ff082c5c84f78 Phone: Australia 1300 729 171 International +61 2 9188 2999 #acysecurities #keylevels #forexanalysis #forex #trading #analysis #audjpy #audusd #eurgbp #eurusd \#BOJdecision, #USDJPY, #yenweakness, #Japaninflation, #interestrates, #USDstrength, #DXY, #NFPpreview, #nonfarmpayrolls, #EURUSD, #forextrading, #macroeconomics, #centralbanks, #FOMC, #economicdata #gold #xauusd @ACYSecuritiesAustralia Disclaimer: Foreign exchange and derivatives trading carries significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange and derivatives, we encourage you to consider your investment objectives, your risk tolerance and trading experience. ACY Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL: 403863) provides general advice that does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider if you are part of our Target Market by reviewing our TMD and read our FSG and PDS to ensure you fully understand the risks. The content of this presentation must not be construed as personal advice and the information in this presentation is prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs; please seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. ACY Securities Pty Ltd is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC AFSL:403863). Registered address: ACY Tower, Level 18, 799 Pacific Hwy, Chatswood NSW 2067. AFSL authorised us to provide financial services to Australian Residents or Businesses. ACY Capital LLC ('ACY LLC'), ACY LLC is incorporated in St Vincent and the Grenadines (Company number: 2610 LLC 2022). Registered address: Suite 305, Griffith Corporate Centre, Beachmont, Kingstown. ACY Securities SA Pty Ltd (Reg.: 2009/008731/07) is regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA: 51008). Registered address: 4 Stan Road, Sandton, Johannesburg, Gauteng, 2196. FSCA authorised us to provide financial services in terms of section 8 of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services. © 2020 - 2025 ACY Securities is a brand name of ACY AU and ACY LLC, ACY Securities Pty Ltd. All rights Reserved.