Loose money, strong growth, AI adoption, and productivity. What more do you want?

Whilst there is always plenty to contend with in markets at any given moment, things seem to be dialled up to 11 at the moment. AI-disruption is being talked about so much that it is giving people a headache; valuation concerns remain ripe, whilst concentration worries linger. But the market is not the economy. And whilst, again, there are some worries, for the most part the picture - particularly in the US - looks pretty strong. That's the view of Longview Economics' Director and Senior Market Strategist, Harry Colvin, who describes the backdrop as a genuine Goldilocks setup. Disinflation is gathering pace, particularly across US services. Central banks are shifting from tight to looser policy. At the same time, artificial intelligence is driving a meaningful capital expenditure cycle, with early signs that productivity may finally be lifting after years of stagnation. As he put it: “Loose money, strong growth from CapEx, AI adoption and productivity. What more do you want from a Goldilocks scenario?” It is a powerful combination. If disinflation persists and policy continues to ease, Colvin believes we could see a broadening of earnings, stronger global growth and a more supportive regime for risk assets than investors have enjoyed in years. In this interview, he also unpacks the risks around the US consumer, what bond–equity correlations are signalling, where he would allocate capital across regions and asset classes, and why private credit makes him uneasy at this stage of the cycle.