From TACO To TUNA: The Markets’ Adventures In TrumpLand!

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. Major sell-offs across US equities and bonds and a slide in the greenback this week sparked fears of a “sell America” trade. We had TINA (There Is No Alternative), then TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) but this week, TUNA (Trump Usually Negates Announcements) as Trump climbed down on tariff threats over Greenland. Macquarie strategist Viktor Shvets’ comparison with the world of professional wrestling – lots of anger, most of it performative – seems apt. There are it seems potentially better valuations, better recovery and earnings, and a better change in the economic outlook for countries beyond the US, even as US domestic policy is also driving a “sell America” trade. As an example, Stichting Pensioenfonds Europe’s biggest pension fund spent much of last year dramatically scaling back its exposure to the US government bond market, reducing its holding of US Treasuries by about €10 billion to €19 billion in the six months through September. The figures, which are based on the €538 billion fund’s latest disclosures and numbers reported by Dutch public broadcaster NOS. and I note the share of world reserves held in gold continues to spike higher, as those linked to the US Dollar falls. Gold had its biggest weekly advance since 2020, flirting with the $US5000 an ounce mark. Silver’s latest surge lifted its year-to-date rise to near 40 per cent. Oil broke through $US66 a barrel late in New York as traders factored in the possibility of American military action in Iran after President Donald Trump said an armada was heading to the Middle East, and a massive winter storm was poised to hammer the US over the weekend. The annual World Economic Forum talkfest in Davos sparked real reflection across global markets and the impressive speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, also a former Bank of England governor, in which he declared a “rupture, not a transition” of the rules-based order that has dominated since the end of World War II, reverberated for good reason. Ahead, The ASX will be closed on Monday for Australia Day. Trading will resume on Tuesday. Among the local companies set to release quarterly reports next week are Woodside Energy, Origin Energy and Resmed. Australia’s key release next week is Wednesday’s fourth-quarter CPI. Overseas, the focus is on the Federal Reserve policy meeting, plus US corporate reporting season gathers pace with investors hyper focused on Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Meta and ExxonMobil in particular. In a note, FactSet said overall, 13 per cent of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for the fourth quarter to date. Of these companies, 75 per cent have reported actual earnings per share above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 78 per cent and below the 10-year average of 76 per cent. But the key question is will traders still be trying to interpret the latest ructions in Trumpland, or look past the TUNA and hope for the best. Seems to me, precious metals are saying, all is not well, if this trend continues, watch out. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts Please consider supporting our work via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics The full detailed set of post code data is available as a subscription service. Or make a one-off contribution to help cover our costs via PayPal at: https://www.paypal.me/MartinDFA We also can receive bitcoins at: 13zBL1oRib9VJu8Uc9zUGNhxKDBBgUpDN1 Please share this post to help to spread the word about the state of things.... Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!! 🚨BEWARE OF SCAMMERS🚨 As there are accounts impersonating Walk The World in the comments on YouTube, note that our comments will have a distinguishable verified symbol. And remember that we will never message you asking you to give us money or talk to us on other platforms such as WhatsApp or Telegram