First EXTREME RISK in 8 Years - Tornado Chase

🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – Sunday, June 7, 2026 (20:00Z Update) SPC Risk Level: MODERATE (Level 4 of 5) Valid through June 8, 2026 7:00 AM CDT Sunday 📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones EXTREME RISK - CANADA 🔴 MODERATE Risk: Miles City, MT, Williston, ND, Dickinson, ND, Bismarck, ND 🟡 SLIGHT Risk: Springfield, MO, Fayetteville, AR 🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones 🟡 10% Tornado Risk (Few supercells with brief tornadoes possible): Springfield, MO, Fayetteville, AR What the Percentages Mean A 10% tornado risk means there is a 1 in 10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. The highest risk area includes the Ozarks region where a few weak supercells may produce brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts. 📝 Overview A well-defined cold-pool-driven bow echo is expected to develop across portions of southeastern Montana, extreme northwestern South Dakota, and western and central North Dakota this afternoon. This system is forecast to produce a widespread swath of damaging winds, with gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and possibly a derecho. Moderate instability with MLCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg and strong low- to mid-level shear will support this intense wind threat. Elsewhere, a weak trough over the central U.S. will support scattered thunderstorms across the Ozarks region, where a few weak supercells may form. These storms carry a risk of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging wind gusts. Moisture and mid-level flow will be sufficient to sustain these storms during peak heating. ⛈️ Hazards Include 🧊 Isolated severe hail 🌪️ Brief tornadoes possible in the Ozarks 💨 Widespread damaging winds (60-100 mph) with bow echo/derecho potential in the northern High Plains 🕓 Timeline 3 PM–6 PM CDT: Storm initiation and intensification across southeastern MT and western ND 6 PM–10 PM CDT: Peak severe wind threat with bow echo/derecho development moving northeastward 10 PM–12 AM CDT: Gradual weakening of severe threat as storms move into eastern Dakotas 12 AM–7 AM CDT: Overnight diminishing activity east of the Dakotas 📌 Regional Notes 🔴 Northern High Plains → Southeastern MT, NW SD, W/C ND: Intense damaging winds with potential derecho development 🟡 Ozarks → Southwestern MO, NW AR: Scattered storms with brief tornado and damaging wind potential ⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware Residents in southeastern Montana, western and central North Dakota, and extreme northwestern South Dakota should remain alert for rapidly intensifying severe thunderstorms capable of producing widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Likewise, those in southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas should monitor for isolated severe storms with brief tornado potential this afternoon and evening. ——————————— In-Vehicle Driver, Man-of-Action - @ReedTimmerWx Navigator, Man-of-Music - @localmanweatherofficial Engineer, Man-of-Iron - @willclay25 Studio Guy in the corner - @brianvotoole, but he doesn't really post anything. he's just laying in the cut, you know? Other Guy - @pettuswx_