Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Crushed Tsarist Russia & Qing China

After my last lecture series with Sarah Paine ended, I still had so many questions. I knew we’d only scratched the surface of Sarah’s scholarship, so I immediately invited her back for another series: she graciously agreed, and we’ll be releasing the results online over the coming weeks and months! This first lecture is focused on the balance of power in East Asia at the turn of the 20th century. Specifically, how did Japan (population 47M) defeat China (400M) and Russia (130M) to become Asia's dominant power? For me, the most interesting thing was that Japan's surprise attack on Port Arthur at the beginning of the Russo-Japanese War (1904) helps us understand why Japan might have thought Pearl Harbor would work. Read the transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/sarah-paine-east-asia Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381?i=1000719011531 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5RiEnzxmBQsAh9401DKZyV?si=uPjHT0nZTfu0UIDYe5ttIw ---------------------------------------- SPONSORS * Google’s Veo 3 helps us visualize the hypothetical scenarios that often come up during our interviews. Veo’s ability to generate both video and audio—all with incredible realism—makes it perfect for bringing our content to life. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google. * Hudson River Trading is one of the world's top quantitative trading firms. Responsible for around 15% of all U.S. equities trading volume, HRT powers their trades with cutting-edge deep learning models. Their in-house AI team does fundamental ML research and then applies it to some of the most competitive markets in the world. If you’re interested in joining them, you can learn more at https://hudsonrivertrading.com/dwarkesh. To sponsor a future episode, visit https://dwarkesh.com/advertise. ---------------------------------------- TIMESTAMPS 00:00:00 – Japan's Meiji reforms 00:15:26 – Trans-Siberian railway & Japan's 3-year window for empire 00:30:42 – The most important battle in the Russo-Japanese war 00:49:22 – China's implosion: imperialism, civil wars, and opium 01:00:15 – Was Russia on track to dominate Asia? 01:15:10 – Pearl Harbor (1941) vs surprise attack of Port Arthur (1904) 01:34:47 – Why big countries still lose wars 01:47:40 – Grand strategy for small countries