Financial markets pricing in quagmire risk

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.  Today we lead with news the US is frustrated with Iran and is promising even more military strikes. The deal Trump thought was close, isn't. The escalation threat has oil and financial markets reacting badly. But first today, American CPI inflation (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) jumped from 3.8% in April to 4.2% in May, largely as expected and largely based on higher fuel costs. This is its highest since April 2023. Today's geopolitical events and markets reactions probably mean it isn't finished with the current trajectory. Actually, for March, April and now May, their CPI index rose +2.0% in just those months, so the rate being experienced by consumers (annualised +8%?) is very much higher than the annual one reported. The White House reaction was very unexpected: Trump said (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/trump-inflation-cpi-iran-oil.html) , "You know, I love the inflation." Certainly, financial markets were unimpressed. There was a large jump in American mortgage applications (http://www.mortgagebankers.org/) last week even though benchmark home loan interest rates stayed elevated at about 6.6%. After six weeks of holding back, it seems borrowers are coming to accept that they have to pay these higher rates. Remember pre-war, these rates were under 6.1%. The jump in applications this week were from both new borrowers and those needing refinance. For a seventh straight week, and including stocks in their strategic reserve, American crude oil stocks dropped in the latest update (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf) , and by almost double the rate expected. Today's US Treasury 10yr bond auction (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2026/R_20260610_2.pdf) was well supported and yield's rose only modestly for this one, coming in at 4.48% median (4.54% high bid), up from 4.41% at the prior equivalent event (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2026/R_20260512_3.pdf) a month ago. In Canada, their central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/06/fad-press-release-2026-06-10/) as expected, and for the fifth consecutive time. They had inflation at 2.8% in April so, so far, there is little evidence higher energy prices are being passed on or embedded in their consumer cost base. Data out in Japan yesterday shows their May producer prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/pi/cgpi_release/cgpi2605.pdf) rose +6.3% from a year ago, up from 5.3% in April and the fastest rise since the end of the pandemic in March 2023. After the April spurt, they rose another +0.9% in May alone. China's CPI inflation (https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202606/t20260610_1963923.html) level was low and stable in May, coming in at 1.2% from a year ago, unchanged from April. Beef prices were up +4.2% however and lamb prices up +6.2%. Egg prices are up +6.6% on the same basis and a five year high. These were more than offset by a -16% drop in Chinese pork prices though. And dairy prices fell -1.2% on the same year-ago basis. But China's producer prices (https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202606/t20260610_1963922.html) are not so calm. In fact they rose an outsized +5.8% in May from a year ago for industrial products, up 3.9% overall when you broaden the categories to include food, clothing and other goods produced for consumers. Apart from the pandemic, the headline 3.9% is the highest they have had since August 2018. In Australia, we should note that their emergency petrol tax concession (https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/fact-sheet-fuel-excise-relief-measures-from-1-april-2026-2april2026.pdf) will end at the end of June. That will juice up their inflation if it isn't extended. The UST 10yr yield (https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/interest-rates/us-treasures) is now just on 4.54%, up +1 bp for the day.  The price of gold (http://www.interest.co.nz/charts/commodities/precious-metals) will start today down another -US$160 from yesterday at US$4098/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$64.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday at just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94.50/bbl. Hormuz transits (https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/) are almost non-existent today, only 2 in the past 24 hours.. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,781 and little-changed (up +0.3%) from ...