Bitcoin's Bearish Pattern: Need 5 Waves Up to Invalidate

Bitcoin is currently testing major resistance near the upper boundary of the trend channel while the broader structure still points toward a larger bearish pattern. In this video, we break down the short-term Bitcoin structure, the key support levels traders should watch, and why the recent rally may still be part of a larger corrective bounce rather than the start of a new bull market. We also look at four important on-chain cost basis levels that historically marked every major Bitcoin bear market low. So far in this cycle, none of them have been properly breached. Timestamps: 00:00 Bitcoin rejects from channel resistance 00:45 Why the broader pattern remains bearish 01:50 The goal is navigating scenarios, not predictions 02:45 Current B-wave structure explained 03:19 What would invalidate the bearish scenario 04:25 Why 3-wave rallies remain dangerous 05:10 Resistance grows near the target zone 05:55 Transition into on-chain analysis 06:35 Four on-chain levels that marked every bear market low 07:25 Realized price explained 07:55 True market mean explained 08:20 Long-term holder realized price explained 08:50 Investor price explained 09:43 Why the current cycle still looks incomplete 10:40 The main downside risk for Bitcoin 11:10 Futures chart resistance and CME gap 11:55 Critical support levels on Bitcoin futures 12:46 Why the macro risk remains elevated 13:10 S&P 500 comparison and correction risk 14:05 15-minute Bitcoin chart update 14:50 The key support line at $78,220 15:35 Why downside probabilities increase below support 16:07 Final outlook and summary ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🧿 MCO Global: 💻 https://www.mcoglobal.com/ ✉️ Join the FREE Newsletter: 👉 https://mcoglobal.com/newsletter/ 🧿 Join the More Crypto Online Community: 👉 https://www.mcoglobal.com/memberships OR 👉 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCngIhBkikUe6e7tZTjpKK7Q/join OR 👉 https://www.patreon.com/morecryptoonline 🧿 Join the MCO Stocks & S&P500 Community: 👉 https://www.patreon.com/moretradingonline ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🧿 Social Media: 👉 X / Twitter: https://x.com/Morecryptoonl 👉 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/morecryptoonline_official/ 🔗 All Links: https://linktr.ee/morecryptoonline ✉️ Contact: [email protected] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🧿 Exchanges & Brokers (Affiliate Links): 👉 Trade on Bybit: https://partner.bybit.com/b/MCO 👉 Trade on Bitget: https://partner.bitget.com/bg/MoreCryptoOnline 👉 Trade with XTB – a global, regulated broker offering 7,100+ stocks and 1,400 ETFs 🔗 https://geolink.xtb.com/XjNyk (Please note: XTB services are not available to U.S. clients.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🧿 Research & Tools (Affiliate Links): 👉 Tradingview - Chart software Get a $15 discount on your first subscription: https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=108760 👉 Bitcoin Magazine Pro – On-chain data & research Get 20% off with code: 20MCO https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com 👉 CoinTracking – Portfolio & tax tracking Get 10% lifetime discount with this link: https://cointracking.info/?ref=B776587 👉 Protect your cryptocurrencies with Trezor: https://bit.ly/morecryptoonline 👉 Protect your cryptocurrencies with Ledger: https://shop.ledger.com/?r=0fb3c8be2e46 👉 Stay safe with NordVPN: https://go.nordvpn.net/SH4s0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ⚠️ Disclaimer The content provided on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments, or a financial service under applicable laws. All analyses and opinions expressed are strictly personal views. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and act at your own risk. Always consider your individual risk profile and, if necessary, consult with an independent financial advisor. Some of the links provided in this description may be affiliate links. If you choose to use them, MCO Global may receive a commission – at no additional cost to you. Thank you for supporting the channel. ⚠️ Important: Affiliate links related to cryptocurrency exchanges are not available to residents of the United Kingdom, the United States, or any other restricted jurisdictions. Please check the laws and regulations that apply in your country before using such services. Other affiliate links (e.g. VPN, hardware wallets, software tools) are unaffected.