Brace: Markets Caught In A Volatile Trap As War, Jobs And Credit Risks All Hit!

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. As expected, the broadening conflict in the middle east spooked markets as Oil rose with WTI up more than 35% and LNG gas futures up 67%. As I discussed with Tarric Brooker, the consequences of the closure of the straits of Hormuz and the destruction or closure of production facilities will cast a long shadow even if the immediate conflict were to end. In a move to ease some supply concerns, the U.S. announced it would allow the sale of Russian oil to India for a period of 30 days. But the strategy remains at best muddled. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett says a prolonged Iran war could reshape global asset allocation, favoring commodities, the U.S. dollar and defense-linked sectors while creating risks for regions heavily dependent on imported energy. "Asset allocation shifts to beneficiaries of extended conflict… oil, US$, US tech, global defense at expense of oil importers with minimal energy equity exposure," with Korea, Japan and Europe standing out in that group, he said in a Friday report. Beyond that, the private credit sector cockroaches were on parade again this week, with Blackrock limiting withdrawals as they froze $1.2 billion in withdrawal requests at its private credit fund. Tick Tock. And with inflation already hot, and sure to spike higher on the direct and indirect impacts of the war on Iran, bond yields rose, while markets had the shakes allowing volatility players to profit from the wild ride. Cash suddenly seems a safe haven for now. Gold futures fell 1.7% for the week and Bitcoin rose 1.26% in volatile trading. The Global MSCI index was down 3.72% for the week, back to close to the start of the year, the STOXX 600 in Europe fell 5.55% over the 5 days and the Asia ex Japan dropped more than 8%, though it is still 5% higher for the year. The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 3.8 per cent for the week – its biggest decline since April, when the Trump administration doled out wide-reaching tariffs. Ahead, March is the month for a raft of central bank policy meetings with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s set for March 17. The Fed’s decision will follow on March 18 as will the Bank of Canada’s. On the 19th, the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will follow. But all eyes will be on the war in Iran, and the fallout, which already looks significant. So we can expect more volatility, and uncertainty. And keep an eye on those private credit markets too, as this is becoming quite an issue, though largely crowded out, along with Ukraine, and the financial pressure or ordinary households around the place. Next Tuesday’s live show will focus on Australian households and their situation based on our surveys, so join us then to ask a question live. Meantime, brace brace, brace…. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts Please consider supporting our work via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics The full detailed set of post code data is available as a subscription service. Or make a one-off contribution to help cover our costs via PayPal at: https://www.paypal.me/MartinDFA We also can receive bitcoins at: 13zBL1oRib9VJu8Uc9zUGNhxKDBBgUpDN1 Please share this post to help to spread the word about the state of things.... Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!! 🚨BEWARE OF SCAMMERS🚨 As there are accounts impersonating Walk The World in the comments on YouTube, note that our comments will have a distinguishable verified symbol. And remember that we will never message you asking you to give us money or talk to us on other platforms such as WhatsApp or Telegram