The Secret to Making Better Predictions 🔮
Sep 1, 2025•Channel
AI Analysis
Data from YouTube Data API v3•Updated Just now
Video Overview
Video Details
Published9 months ago
Duration5:46
Video IDW9sFZkYqvLo
Languageen
CategoryScience & Technology
PrivacyPublic
Made for KidsNo
Video TypeRegular Video
Performance Metrics
Views153.4K
Likes127
Comments10
Engagement Rate0.09%
Likes per 100 views0.08
Comments per 1K views0.07
Video Tags
#superforecasting#forecasting#prediction#future studies#philip tetlock#expert political judgment#the good judgment project#ace forecasting#probabilistic thinking#decision making#intelligence analysis#geopolitics#forecasting tournaments#calibration#prediction accuracy#bayesian reasoning#critical thinking#superforecasters#policy analysis#behavioral science
Description
Why are we so bad at predicting the future – and how can we get better at it?
From weather forecasts to geopolitical gambles, even the experts get it wrong. But a group of “superforecasters” have shown that with the right habits – curiosity, humility, and a bit of data – it’s possible to beat the odds.
This video explores the psychology of prediction, the rise of the Good Judgment Project, and what it really takes to think like a scientist.
Can better thinking help us better prepare? Find out in this video from iluli by Mike Lamb – explaining the ideas and innovations changing our lives.
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*Visit the iluli website:* https://www.iluli.eu
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0:00 Introduction: What does the future hold?
1:16 Making predictions more scientific
2:33 What are superforecasters?
3:22 How to think like a superforecaster
4:52 Benefits of better predictions