Shane Oliver: Australians aren't getting ahead - and the Budget might not fix it

Is the upcoming Federal Budget a genuine attempt at economic reform, or simply a redistribution of wealth that risks fueling the inflation fire? In this exclusive interview, AMP Chief Economist Dr. Shane Oliver joins Livewire’s Anna Dadic to deconstruct the "ugly" economic trade-off currently facing Australia: weakening growth paired with stubbornly sticky inflation. As the government prepares to hand down the 2026 Budget, Oliver warns that "fiddling" with tax settings like Negative Gearing and Capital Gains Tax may do little to solve the nation's underlying productivity crisis. This interview was filmed on Wednesday, May 6th, 2026. Read the summary here: https://bit.ly/4f9jIGE Key Discussion Points: The Growth-Inflation Trap: Why Australia has entered a period of deteriorating living standards and capacity constraints. The Spending Problem: A look at why public spending as a share of GDP has reached levels not seen since WWII — and its impact on the RBA’s inflation fight. CGT & Negative Gearing: Oliver explains why returning to a Keating-era indexation model for CGT could actually benefit some investors, while warning that removing negative gearing could further tighten the rental market. Intergenerational Equity: The hidden impact of bracket creep on Gen Z and Millennials and the urgent need for a shift toward consumption-based tax reform. The Investor’s Playbook: Three specific signals investors should watch for on Budget night, from corporate tax changes to deregulation. Timecodes: 0:00 – Introduction: Is the 2026 Budget genuine reform or redistribution? 0:33 – The core challenge: Expanding economic capacity without fueling inflation. 1:35 – The Fiscal Contradiction: Stimulus vs. RBA monetary tightening. 2:25 – Public spending levels: Why we are at a "World War II" peak. 3:17 – The "Handout" Trap: Do rebates and subsidies make inflation worse? 5:42 – CGT Reform: Why moving to indexation may actually benefit some investors. 7:40 – Negative Gearing: The risk of tightening rental supply. 10:41 – Housing Affordability: Population growth vs. supply-side constraints. 12:20 – Rent-vesting and the decline of intergenerational equity. 13:36 – Genuine Tax Reform: Reducing reliance on income tax and the case for GST. 16:59 – Solving Bracket Creep: A consumption-based tax system for a retiring population. 19:14 – The "Crowding Out" Effect: How public spending stifles private investment. 21:29 – 3 things investors must watch for: Spending cuts, corporate tax, and deregulation. 24:15 – Macro-risks: Geopolitical tensions and the "Trump factor."