U.S. Launches Major Combat Operations Against Iran - What Happens Next?

Major combat operations against Iran are underway - and for the first time, the stated objective includes regime change. In this urgent Cipher Brief conversation, Executive Editor Brad Christian sits down with Cipher Brief Expert and former National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) Norm Roule to break down what matters most - including what isn’t happening yet. Why hasn’t Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz? Why are missile attacks on Gulf states limited so far? Is the regime’s leadership still intact? And what would real regime change actually look like? Roule offers a clear-eyed intelligence assessment of Iran’s military calculus, the IRGC’s internal dynamics, Europe’s muted response, and the unpredictable chemistry that could shape the next days. He warns that if “you break it, there’s nothing to own” - and explains why no one can confidently predict how this ends. This is a rare, insider’s perspective of real-time analysis of unfolding conflict - and what to watch next. For deeply experienced, expert-driven national security insight, become a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ member and access exclusive reporting, expert analysis, and private briefings. 🔒 Read more at TheCipherBrief.com 🎯 Join Subscriber+ for full access and exclusive events 📩 Subscribe to stay ahead of the threat curve #Iran #NationalSecurity #MiddleEast #IRGC #RegimeChange #StraitOfHormuz #Geopolitics #Trump #Intelligence #TheCipherBrief