ECB Interest Rate Decision Day: What I’m Watching!

Today is ECB decision day — one of the most important sessions for euro traders. At 10:15 p.m. Sydney time, we get the ECB interest rate decision, deposit facility rate, marginal lending rate, and the monetary policy statement. The key event follows 30 minutes later: the press conference with Christine Lagarde. Markets expect no change in interest rates, which currently sit at 2.15%. That aligns with what I discussed in yesterday’s session. I’ve been long EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD, while staying short USD/JPY — all of which are running in profit since the call. The focus now shifts to Lagarde’s tone. If she signals confidence in inflation cooling or mentions forward guidance hinting at more cuts, I expect bullish momentum in the euro to extend. On the flip side, if her language reflects concern over growth or heightened uncertainty, EUR strength may fade quickly. Right now, EUR/USD trades near 1.1763. If Lagarde reinforces a dovish but confident stance, I expect a potential test of 1.1830, the yearly high. I remain bullish on the euro and bearish on the US dollar, given Europe’s improving trade balance and inflation returning to target. In my view, the ECB emerges from its inflation battle stronger than expected. Their economic indicators are stabilizing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if rate cuts bring us down to 1.75–1.80% next year. That’s a major shift from where we were in 2023. What matters now is whether Lagarde comments on PMIs, GDP growth, or inflation moving below 2%. Any hint of this could ignite further euro strength. If she confirms the economy is cooling in a controlled, healthy way — that’s the green light for bulls. Register here for the next webinar: https://acy.com/en/education/webinars/ Join Luca's Telegram Trading Feed: https://t.me/+bkfmaA76P2VlMTQ1 Free Trading eBook Series: https://acy.com/en/education/ebook/ Open a Live or Demo Account here: https://acy.cloud/open-live-account?url=https%3A%2F%2Facy.com.au%2Fen%2F&next=%2Fcreate-account%2Fselect-account-type https://youtu.be/QuowC4vVCrA https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvTbydhR9mC9zP33SONAVXOt https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvRYPBqz1EhkWyp5Tg3qwZCV https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQ4HLCoPaU_AhfjABFgHAaX https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQfwLPLln7cRwnB8HD6cvEj #eurotrading #ecbdecision #eurusd #ecbpressconference #forexnews #interestrates #christinelagarde #europeaneconomy #eurbullish #usdollar #usdbearish #macromarket #forextrader #technicalanalysis #fundamentalanalysis #centralbank #inflationdata #forexsetup #tradingstrategy #euroutlook Catch up with the latest news and market analysis here: https://acy.com/en/market-news Get in touch today: Web: https://www.acy.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/ACY_Securities Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/acy.securities/ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2g4Py8AuAqUIxci9efdMmm?si=ac6ff082c5c84f78 Phone: Australia 1300 729 171 International +61 2 9188 2999 Disclaimer: Foreign exchange and derivatives trading carries significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange and derivatives, we encourage you to consider your investment objectives, your risk tolerance and trading experience. ACY Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL: 403863) provides general advice that does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider if you are part of our Target Market by reviewing our TMD and read our FSG and PDS to ensure you fully understand the risks. The content of this presentation must not be construed as personal advice and the information in this presentation is prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs; please seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. ACY Securities Pty Ltd is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC AFSL:403863). Registered address: ACY Tower, Level 18, 799 Pacific Hwy, Chatswood NSW 2067. AFSL authorised us to provide financial services to Australian Residents or Businesses. ACY Capital LLC ('ACY LLC'), ACY LLC is incorporated in St Vincent and the Grenadines (Company number: 2610 LLC 2022). Registered address: Suite 305, Griffith Corporate Centre, Beachmont, Kingstown. ACY Securities SA Pty Ltd (Reg.: 2009/008731/07) is regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA: 51008). Registered address: 4 Stan Road, Sandton, Johannesburg, Gauteng, 2196. FSCA authorised us to provide financial services in terms of section 8 of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services. © 2020 - 2025 ACY Securities is a brand name of ACY AU and ACY LLC, ACY Securities Pty Ltd. All rights Reserved.