US credit card debt leaps

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American households are struggling as inflation pressures consume their reserves. In the US there were 181,000 new initial jobless claims (https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20260712.pdf) last week, about what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.735 mln people on these benefits, lower than at this time last year, but still above two year-ago levels. And there were 83,000 reported job cuts (https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-april-job-cuts-rise-38-from-march-ytd-cuts-down-50/) in April, a bit above the average over the past year. For a second month in a row, AI is the key reason for shedding jobs now. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations (https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260507) in the US rose in April and for a second month to 3.6% in April which is their highest since October 2023. Inflation uncertainty also increased at the one-year-ahead horizon. Income expectations are up less than 3%, so on average most people there expect inflation will set them back from where they are. US consumer debt (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm) jumped in March by much more than expected, driven by a +9.1% surge in credit card debt. The big end of town is noticing. Executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods are increasingly worried about American shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging fuel prices caused by Trump's Gulf War. “They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month,” one said (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/gas-prices-hit-record-high-hurting-consumer-spending-ceos-warn?srnd=homepage-americas) . Across the Pacific, China's FX reserves (https://www.safe.gov.cn/safe/2026/0206/27116.html) jumped in April to just over US$3.4 tin after the unexpected March dip, and back up in its rising trend. This is their largest gain in 28 months. But it is still off its US$4 tln level in mid 2014. Gold holdings increased again by another +8 tonnes. The central bank of Malaysia reviewed (https://www.bnm.gov.my/-/monetary-policy-statement-07052026) its monetary policy late yesterday and kept its official rate unchanged at 2.75%. And Malaysian discount airline AirAsia said (https://investor.airasiax.com/newsroom/Bursa_Announcement_-_A220_(2026_05)_20260506.pdf) it has ordered 150 Airbus aircraft worth US$19 bln, and said it has an option to order another 150 from Airbus. Orders like this are being driven by the need for fuel efficiency. The central bank of Norway unexpectedly raised (https://www.norges-bank.no/aktuelt/nyheter/Foredrag-og-taler/2026/2026-05-07-pk/) its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.25% at its overnight meeting, defying market expectations for no change. They said inflation remains too high at 3.6% and is likely to stay elevated and action is needed now to keep it closer to its 2% target. In the EU, the volume of retail sales (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/4-07052026-ap) fell in March from February to be up just 1.9% from year ago levels. The lower volume of fuel sales was the key reason driving the recent reversal. Non-food, non-fuel activity was actually up an impressive +3.0% for the year. In Germany they posted an impressive factory order intake (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2026/05/PE26_156_421.html?nn=2112) for March, up +6.3% from the same month a year ago and resuming the upward trend they have had since August 2025. Australia said (https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/international-trade-goods/mar-2026) its exports fell -2.7% in March from February as rural exports plunged -11.6%. Also, non-monetary gold exports dropped -6.1%. That makes its March merchandise exports -2.2% lower than year-ago levels. Meanwhile, imports rose +14%. That means they recorded a -AU$1.8 bln trade deficit for the month, far larger than the expected +$4.2 bln surplus and the first monthly deficit since 2017. The import surge of "ADP equipment" totaling $4.8 bln in March (likely for data centers), is a key reason. Meanwhile, the Aussie government has imposed punitive tariffs (https://www.industry.gov.au/anti-dumping-commission/current-cases-and-electronic-public-record-epr/688) of up to 82% on Chinese coil steel exports in a major effort to shield local manufacturers from low-cost competition from China that receive 'unfair' Chinese government subsidies. Global container freight rates (https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry) rose +3% last week to be +10% higher than year-ago levels. Outbound China rates are rising again. Bulk cargo rates were u...