Why the Dollar Struggled in 2025 and What Could Come Next?

This video breaks down why the U.S. dollar weakened against most major developed currencies in 2025 and what factors could shape the EUR/USD pair heading into 2026. We start with the two forces that drove the dollar lower. Growing expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts relative to global central banks, and the unwinding of a crowded positioning trade that was long the U.S. and short Europe. You'll see how U.S. and German two-year yields broke their typical correlation, with American yields falling while European yields rose, and why that divergence became a signal for currency traders. From there, we look at the euro's 15% surge against the dollar between March 2025 and late January 2026. We then turn to what could matter most in 2026, including the expected appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chairman and the question of whether monetary policy will stay accommodative under political pressure. Finally, we examine the other side of the trade. With the euro near a five-year high, we explore whether the bullish thesis may already be reflected in the price and what a corrective phase might look like. Learn More: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/microsuite/fx.html #euro #dollar #fx #futures Track 398165 – Monetization ID ZP5VOVIKHFGKFI9K