Lowe & Co Realty

Is the Wellington Property Market Broken?

Wellington’s property market feels rough right now, but is the reality actually as bad as people think? In the latest episode of The Lowe Down, Craig Lowe and Adam Cockburn unpack the growing disconnect between market sentiment and what the data is actually showing. With headlines focused on falling prices, sluggish sales, rising stock levels, and economic uncertainty, they explore why confidence in Wellington feels so low and whether some of that negativity is becoming self-fulfilling. The conversation dives into the impact of inflation fears, interest rates, the Middle East conflict, government job cuts, migration, student numbers, and Wellington’s reputation problem, while also questioning whether the market is quietly becoming more rational and opportunity-driven for buyers. Craig & Adam also reflect on how today’s market compares to the “crazy” Covid-era boom, why vendors are finally adjusting expectations, and how long-term cycles, human psychology, and sentiment ultimately shape property markets more than most people realise. A balanced, honest discussion about whether Wellington is truly broken — or simply going through a difficult reset. Chapter Titles: 0:00 – Introduction 1:55 – The “Recovery Is Coming” Narrative Why market optimism for 2026 has stalled. 3:02 – Sales Volumes Crashed… Then Recovered What the Wellington data is actually showing. 4:22 – Why Sentiment Has Turned Negative Again War, inflation fears, interest rates, and stagflation concerns. 6:02 – Wellington vs The Rest of NZ Why other regions are outperforming right now. 7:09 – Why Wellington Has Been Hit Harder Government cuts, student declines, and infrastructure reputation issues. 9:06 – Migration, Talent & Wellington’s Future Why attracting skilled people matters long term. 13:22 – Are Homes Still Selling Well? Why good properties are still attracting strong competition. 14:17 – Vendors Are Finally Adjusting Expectations The shift away from Covid-era pricing. 18:30 – Have We Returned to a “Normal” Market? Why today may feel worse simply because 2021 was irrational.