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Canada's housing market crash, when will it end?

Ron Butler, founder of Angry Mortgage and one of Canada's most unfiltered mortgage analysts, has a simple answer to the question of when the Canadian housing market recovers. It may not. Not a crash and recovery. Not a V-shaped rebound. Just flat. For years. In this exclusive interview with Ron Butler, he walks us through what the hangover from Canada's historic housing bubble actually looks like in practice. Prices will continue to decline in Ontario through all of 2026. British Columbia is following, approximately a year to eighteen months behind Toronto. Southern Alberta is already eight months into a decline. Quebec has levelled off and is no longer advancing. These are not temporary corrections waiting to reverse. They are the beginning of what Butler expects to be a prolonged period of stagnation. His reference point is the 1990s. Prices fell from 1990 through 1994 and then went nowhere for years. No recovery. Just flat. And here is the detail people miss: when the market goes flat while inflation continues for everything else, the real losses are worse than the nominal numbers show. A house that stays at the same dollar price for five years while food, energy, and services all go up has lost significant real value. The flat market is not the end of the pain. It is the pain continuing quietly. Butler also covers the rental market. In Kelowna alone he says rental capacity is set to increase by approximately 30% over the next two years from completions already in the pipeline. The rental population of Kelowna is not going up 30%. Rents will fall further. That is good news for renters who were abused by this market for years. It is bad news for the leveraged landlords who bought at 2021 prices expecting rental income to cover their debt service. ' The number that lands hardest in this clip is the age of first-time homebuyers in Ontario. Thirty years ago the typical first-time buyer was in their mid to late twenties. Today in Ontario the median first-time buyer is approximately 40 years old. That means half of all first-time buyers in Ontario are over 40. Butler gets direct messages from young Canadians every day saying they are leaving. Houston. Costa Rica. Portugal. The math does not work in Canada and they know it. The people Canada most needs to keep are the ones doing the math and choosing to leave. If the market can stay flat for years with no requirement to go up, rents are falling, prices are still declining, and the average first-time buyer in Ontario is 40 and leaving, what has the government's housing strategy acheived? Let us know what you think in the comments. The Really Big Show: The thinking Canadian's daily briefing, independent and informed. 🔴 Live every weekday at 9AM PST 📍 Independent. Unapologetic. Canadian. 👉 Support the show: https://thereallybigshow.ca Subscribe | Share | Comment — help us grow independent Canadian media. Follow Ron Butler at @ronmortgageguy #canadiannews #canadapolitics #canada #nowmedia #thereallybigshow #canadianhousing #ronbutler #mortgagecrisis #realestate #angrymortgage