What Wellington’s data really says about 2025

In this episode of The LoweDown, Craig Lowe and Adam Cockburn unpack one of the most misunderstood questions in Wellington real estate: was 2025 a recovery or crash? They break down what actually happened to sales volumes, house values, inflation-adjusted returns, supply levels, and economic sentiment, explaining why transaction activity surged while prices continued to fall. With Wellington experiencing one of the largest housing downturns in modern history, they explore why confidence has started to return, why values haven’t, and what needs to change before a true recovery can begin. A grounded, data-driven look at volume vs value, crash psychology, stagnation phases, and what the market is quietly telling us heading into 2026. Chapter Titles: 0:00 – Was 2025 a Recovery or Still a Crash? Setting the central question of the episode. 0:52 – What “Normal” Looks Like in Wellington Property Using long-term sales averages as a baseline. 1:55 – Sales Volumes: From Collapse to Comeback Why volumes rebounded 50% off the bottom. 4:03 – Prices vs Values: Why the Numbers Confuse People Median prices, house price index, and why values matter more. 5:44 – The Real Return: Prices Down, Inflation Up Why 2025 delivered negative real returns for homeowners. 7:00 – Slide, Crash, or Stagnation? How Craig and Adam characterise the market phase. 8:07 – Why Rising Volumes Don’t Mean Rising Prices Buyer–seller balance and post-crash behaviour. 11:00 – The Economy’s Role in Housing Recovery GDP, per-capita recession, and why Wellington is lagging. 13:07 – Supply, Listings, and Why Prices Still Fell How increased listings capped price growth. 15:12 – What Needs to Change Before a Real Recovery Migration, economic growth, and looking ahead to 2026.