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Bradley Duke: Bitcoin Cycle, ETPs & Tokenization

Bradley Duke, Head of Europe at Bitwise, on Bitcoin's late cycle, crypto ETPs and his year-end price call. Bradley Duke brought one of Europe's first Bitcoin ETPs, BTCE, to market in 2020, then as co-founder of ETC Group (acquired by Bitwise in 2024). With Sascha Roehrer he explains why institutional investors are treating this bear market differently than 2022, how Bitwise decides which products to launch, and why he sees real-world asset tokenization as inevitable. Further topics: the quantum risk to Bitcoin and the debate over lost Satoshi wallets, Strategy's roughly 817,000 BTC as a market risk, MiCA and the case for a European stablecoin, his skepticism toward a euro CBDC, and the role of AI agents in the next wave of adoption. He closes with a concrete price call for year-end. 00:00:00 Intro 00:00:54 The first Bitcoin ETP in 2020 and the doubts 00:02:04 From ETC Group to the 2024 Bitwise acquisition 00:03:50 Clients: from retail to sovereign wealth 00:05:18 $11B AUM and the crypto cycle 00:06:42 Different this time? Institutions in the bear market 00:08:58 What is an ETP — and why not self-custody? 00:12:48 Germany's tax regime 00:14:36 Choosing products: BHYPE, Canton, DA20 00:15:41 From speculation to the application layer 00:18:16 Bitcoin dominance, stablecoins & Hyperliquid 00:21:13 Real-world asset tokenization 00:27:07 Quantum risk and lost Satoshi wallets 00:33:21 Strategy, Saylor and the 817,000 BTC 00:37:12 Where are we in the cycle? 00:39:01 Bitcoin, equities and the AI vacuum 00:42:00 Duke's path from TradFi to crypto 00:45:15 MiCA and global regulation 00:50:11 Does Europe need its own stablecoin? 00:51:58 Privatized money: mini central banks? 00:54:08 CBDC skepticism and the digital euro 00:56:25 AI agents, X402 and agentic commerce 01:00:06 Wildest prediction for the next 20 years 01:02:36 Bitcoin price call for year-end *Guest:* Bradley Duke is Managing Director and Head of Europe at Bitwise. Previously co-founder of ETC Group (2019), whose Bitcoin product BTCE became the largest and most heavily traded crypto ETP in Europe; after the Bitwise acquisition in August 2024 he joined the executive team to lead the European expansion. Before that: investment bank Jefferies (New York, Paris, London), head of Knight Direct Europe at KCG, co-founder of fintech and payments company Zapper, and CEO of the UK arm of BCS Global Markets. Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradley-duke/ Website: https://bitwiseinvestments.eu/ *deeptech Insights:* deeptech INSIGHTS is a long-form interview series for people who think about frontier technology and the future for a living. Host Sascha Roehrer sits down with executives, investors, researchers, and the people shaping what comes next. Produced by Börsenmedien AG, Germany's leading financial media house (DER AKTIONÄR, BÖRSE ONLINE, €uro, €uro am Sonntag). Youtube English: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGwe6Ab4ZdSc Youtube German: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLYvuwOqohiSw Spotify English: https://open.spotify.com/show/033ONjPa8CuRZwJ0wZyWPz?si=c6fe9d33623e4418 Spotify German: https://open.spotify.com/show/033ONlTEHwbLHanLrQ6SeC?si=738da62560ed4cd7 Guest suggestions & feedback: [email protected] This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.